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36 Technologiefelder haben die Analysten ausgemacht, die in den kommenden Jahren den Hype Cycle durchlaufen werden. Einige Ansätze wie Enterprise Instant Messaging sind schon einsatzbereit.
Cela devient une habitude sur ce blog depuis sa création, chaque année à la même époque je vous propose le "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" produit par Gartner. Voici donc la version 2007.
Le cabinet d'études Gartner a publié ce mois-ci son rapport annuel "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies". Il y établit, pour 36 technologies, le cycle de maturité, l'impact et la vitesse d'adoption sur les 10 années à venir. 300 analystes du Gartner ont pour cela passé au peigne fin plus de 1 900 technologies et tendances du marché.
We did not make it because our revenues are less than $20M. According to such a criteria, a company like JBoss would not make it either. Go figure… Yet, I tend to believe that Gartner is not really supportive of Open Source in general
Through 2008, less than 10 percent of Global 1000 companies will deploy open-source portals at the enterprise level because of lack of compelling advantages in cost, support, functionality and finish (0.8 probability). However, Gartner does not expect this trend to continue indefinitely. The technology in Java-based horizontal OSS portals, such as that provided by JBoss (recently acquired by Red Hat), is maturing, and vendor-independent portal standards, such as JSR 168, are reducing concerns about vendor lock-in. Additionally, some large ISVs have continued to exploit OSS technology in their portals, highlighted by Sun Microsystems' new strategy of open sourcing its entire infrastructure stack, including its portal. Open-source portal solutions could pose a threat to large ISVs' traditional license sales. At the same time, open source provides large ISVs with opportunities to generate revenue from services supporting open-source initiatives.
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The portal product market is growing, but the number of vendors in the market is shrinking. Portal products are purchased as point products, but suites now garner a growing amount of portal product sales. The Horizontal Portal Product Magic Quadrant shows interesting changes in vendor positions.
Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies (see Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles) for an introduction to the Hype Cycle concepts). Hype Cycles also show how and when technologies move beyond the hype, offer practical benefits and become widely accepted.
Le nouveau "magic quadrant" du Gartner pour les Web Services, très instructif